Gallup's role in midterm years has changed. The firm focuses more on presidential approval, party favorability, and economic confidence than on district-by-district horse-race polling. That still matters: midterms are often read as referendums on the party in the White House.

What Gallup publishes now

Weekly and monthly tracking of presidential job approval, congressional approval, and satisfaction with the direction of the country. In August 2026, those indicators help explain whether the "out party" has a tailwind, without telling you who wins NC-01 or MI-Senate.

Historical context

Gallup's final pre-election approval readings have correlated with seat loss for the president's party, but the relationship is noisy. Low approval does not guarantee a wave; high approval does not guarantee gains. Candidate quality, fundraising, and local issues still move individual races.

Reading Gallup alongside battleground polls

Use Gallup for the national mood, then drill into state surveys from Monmouth, Fox News, Quinnipiac, or local universities for Senate races like Georgia (Ossoff vs. Mike Collins), Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers), and North Carolina (Cooper vs. Whatley).